Quote:
Originally Posted by fjtorres
By this time next year, I can easily see Kindle+Nook+Kobo adding up to 99% market share. And with dedicated ebook readers already in 15% of US households, and maybe 10-15% more ready to jump in, according to recent reports, this particular game doesn't have long to run.
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I wouldn't write Sony off the eink market yet. I played with the PRS-T1 here in Toronto last weekend. It's a very nice upgrade; very light; reasonably intuitive to operate; stylish; and a Sony.
My guess is Amazon stays out of non-US markets with Kindle Fire for at least another year but continues to promote non-ad eink devices internationally. The entry level Kindle (no keyboard, no touch) is already listed as shipping in Canada.
Amazon has done a dismal job selling mp3s; they are a footnote to iTunes. But they bring a lot of muscle to the table and Netflix has shown there is a taste for streaming video content. Netflix has its own challenges and risks self-imploding, following Blockbuster out the door; Amazon could easily leverage that consumer taste and profit handsomely.
What Amazon brings above all other players is synergy ... and the determination to monetize that in tangible, profitable, consumer friendly ways. Kindle with Special Offers is a brilliant example: you can save $25 to $40 and get the same thing with an ad-driven screen saver layer. Or the way they implement library lending with Overdrive. Or embedding its video service in a $79 annual "preferred shipping" package -- it gets cash up front, essentially duplicates Netflix's monthly fee for video, and throws in discount shipping on everything else you might buy.
There is, obviously, room for more than one player but Amazon has raised the stakes. B&N is the most threatened because its core business is a mess and it is counting on the Nook to rescue it. Kobo is a very lean operation, deeply focused on ebooks and exploiting markets where Amazon is not yet ridiculously dominant (and which B&N skips altogether); well executed, Kobo potentially has a long-term role. Sony can afford to hang around indefinitely and their latest iteration is rather more realistically priced.