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Old 09-26-2011, 01:12 PM   #1
stonetools
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Shatzkin:Ebooks may be eighty per cent of the book market in a few years

Intersting article on the Ebook market by Shatzkin, in which he tries to sum up what we know about the Ebook market. He makes this prediction:

Quote:
We know that rate of growth is mathematically prevented from continuing for even three more years (because it would put ebooks at 160% of publishers’ revenues if it did!)

We know from announcements about new devices and a recent Harris poll predicting increased device purchasing that there are no expectations for a slowdown in ebook adoption anytime soon.

We don’t know if we’re going to find a barrier of resistance, or perhaps we should call it the barrier of “paper-insistence”, at some sales level over the next two years (at the end of which ebooks would be 80% of publishers’ revenues at the growth rates we’ve seen over the past four years).
LINK

He walks it back in the comments to 80% for narrative books. Is even that a stretch?

Last edited by stonetools; 09-26-2011 at 02:49 PM.
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