Quote:
Originally Posted by soilwork
This is what I mean by ignoring the degrees of uncertainly.
I will assume that the probability of a product hitting the market (The numbers are arbitrary or subjective).
A) For Astak/Netronix 60%
B) For the concept device 10%
C) Iliad 100% (since it is in the market already)
Since you don't believe in any announcement, you treat both A) and B) equally. I don't treat them the same and that is the difference between you and me.
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I'm not treating it equally. I merly said *if* you take any announcement without assesment of probability, you might as well wait for the Papyrus. Because I did not see any of this, "hey its 60% propable" assement in the early posts.
For the astak 60% for hitting the market at all, or also doing everything what you expect it to do? Its a personal "risk" which is subjective. So say the 40% case gets to be a real thing, and it goes not to market, because say windows CE just can't handle eInk displays, company loses interest, whatever. And you wait 'til August, then some months more, and in December you decide to buy an iLiad after all for much the price it is today.. Well you lost 9 months of being able to use the device...
And as I said, I take a 99% chance, that there will be any better/cheaper device in 12-24 months. But in 12 months there will be again a 99% chance that 12 months later there will be another yet better device, and 12 months later... you get it..
It still the same with notebooks. There is nothing older in the universe than the notebook I bought last month
