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Originally Posted by jimh12345
Jack, I just finished 30 years in the computer/software business, and you're spot on with those observations. Even before the internet, we had research firms like "Gartner Group" selling their wsidom on what was going to be big next year. And in my experience they had very little success in predicting the future even a year out.
The 'reviews' that I see on today's technology blogs are usually shallow, superficial repackagings of marketing bullet points and feature lists. So I hold their predictions in similarly low regard.
If I am not mistaken, almost everyone (myself included) predicted the kindle would be a flop. Who would want a pricey gizmo just for books?
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I think the bias is basic human nature myself. We tend to see what we want to see as the next advance. And of course some developments are more cultural than others. If something new aids people in doing something they want to do it will make a bigger impact than something just as useful that people don't want. The horse and buggy gave way to the automobile in part for example (I think) because people wanted to get from place to place quicker than by horse. Likewise the cell phone took off because business people wanted to be able to be reachable for important messages and yet not tied down to a land line. And ereaders took off because people wanted a simple way to have multiple books on hand without having to carry pounds of paper around. Our fast paced culture helped in the development of all 3. And I'm sure a lot of people saw each thing as a passing fad at the time. Even television was seen as a novelty when it first came out.