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At this point we are actually arguing apples and oranges.... in circles! Here's what I mean.
MOBI
The Futuresource article says 2010 ebook sales were 80% in the US, 10% in the UK, both dominated by Amazon. So MOBI is the most-sold format in that study.
EPUB
Every major Reader supports ePUB except Amazon's Kindle. That's Apple, B&N, Kobo, Sony, etc. So the majority of Readers support ePUB (no study required).
Using these facts (giving futuresource the benefit of the doubt, calling it "fact"), we've made two arguments about standardization:
1) ORIGINAL: Amazon adopts EPUB because everyone else uses it.
2) CURRENT: Everyone adopts MOBI because it's the "dominant" format as of 2010.
Here's the question:
Given (1) and (2), which is more likely? Getting one manufacturer to change, or getting every other manufacturer to change?
Honestly, I think either scenario falls under "moving mountains." But I don't need a statistical study to tell me that moving one mountain is easier than moving a bunch of them. This is why I'm in the EPUB camp.
-Pie
PS. I ignored the scenario "(3) nothing changes" because this is a thread about standardization, and (3) means no standard.
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