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A first published book isn't necessarily going to be as well written as one that comes later on, and if their health is in decline (later in their career) again they might not write as well.
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You never know when it comes to that. You know how much I like Chesterton, but nearly everyone would agree his work became sub-par as he aged. But generally speaking, I find that there are very few authors who write anything worthwhile before they're at least 35-ish, and many are past 40.
What's really strange to me is that most musicians are basically considered has-beens by the time they're 35 or 40, but writers are just getting it into gear during that same age. But after 65, writers are often considered washed-up too. But then classical composers often do their best work after 70. Crazy world--.