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Originally Posted by jbcohen
In sligtly unrelated news I am reading a book called In Her Name where the story is set several decades in the future and the characters say that printed books were discontinued years ago due to the fact that they are way too expensive to make, and bring to market. In their Earth all of the books are digital.
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Not gonna happen, although the paperback novel may go away in the next few decades. It may also switch to a subscription format: Harlequin made its name by selling books only by subscription for a long time, and that's how they kept costs low--they only printed what they'd pre-sold and a small handful of extras; no 20-50% returns to calculate for. I don't think science fiction or "literary" novels can follow that template; there's too much variety in tastes. But genres like mystery, horror, or urban fantasy might be able to make a go at it.
Art books, novelty books, and reference works will continue to be in demand. Children's books, especially with special art options (cut-outs, shiny pictures, textured pieces, doors that open, etc.) will continue to have a market. YA paper books will continue to be sold until minors can legally & easily buy digital content in most places online. And limited-run leather-covered collector's editions will continue to find buyers.