Well, here is the official word from a rather knowledgeable Amazon Kindle Rep.
1. Not every Kindle gets the same offers.
2. Of the few that are not for everyone, the allocation is random, not based on any marketing scheme.
3. If you are scheduled to get an offer download and your WiFi is off, you will get the download next time you turn it on.
I didn't ask him about the ads as they are not what we are interested in. He was very precise and accurate and said he had been briefed on how these things work. This might explain all the odd behavior we are seeing.
BTW tubemonkey, are you ever
not on line??