Quote:
Originally Posted by AMacD
I am old enough to remember when Television first became popular, after WWII. Newspapers were doomed because we could get the news faster on the TV. Movies were doomed because TV was free. Magazines were doomed because we were all mesmerized by Ed Sullivan. And books were also doomed because everyone was staring at the "idiot box". Anybody out there even notice that none of these things happened? I have heard of the utopian prediction that we would all be downloading our newspapers to an e-ink device by now. I am not saying this will not happen. I am saying that predictions rarely come true, but something will happen, just not that which we expected.
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There's a bit of a difference here, though. The closer the ebook readers come to the quality of the print media, they become a direct competitor to fill the SAME requirement. TV content and print content have markedly different appeals. The content is usually more in-depth in print, but quicker and flashier on the TV. Back then, you had to get your programming on the TV at home and when they scheduled. Print was a portable and convenient way to get content when you wanted it. With the ebook and the pbook, the content is the same. The convenience is increased. As the technology gets better, the gap between the experience narrows.
Of the examples you mentioned, I think movies vs. TV is a pretty apt one. And we have seen quite a change. As home theater systems have gotten better, people are renting more movies. The movie theater has gotten a lot more expensive. People aren't going every weekend like they used to. Most people I know only go to the theater when they feel a film needs the big screen experience. Otherwise, it's cheaper and more convenient to rent a movie and watch it at home. I hardly know anyone without a Netflix account. Movies haven't gone away, but the market has changed. I don't think print books will go away, either. People will just be less likely to buy them in the numbers they have before. Folks will probably still want art books or great printings of their beloved books. These will be expensive. Many will stop buying paperbacks, newspapers and magazines in print as reading devices improve.