Quote:
Originally Posted by AMacD
I am old enough to remember when Television first became popular, after WWII. Newspapers were doomed because we could get the news faster on the TV. Movies were doomed because TV was free. Magazines were doomed because we were all mesmerized by Ed Sullivan. And books were also doomed because everyone was staring at the "idiot box". Anybody out there even notice that none of these things happened? I have heard of the utopian prediction that we would all be downloading our newspapers to an e-ink device by now. I am not saying this will not happen. I am saying that predictions rarely come true, but something will happen, just not that which we expected.
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From what you've said, I think we can conclude that technologies are closely linked to their specific purpose. Only when that purpose is perfectly matched by a better technology is the older one displaced, and even then it could take a long time if the older technology still works well.
Here's a short list, off the top of my head, of such technologies that still work well for their specific purpose: telephones, fax machines, am radio, fm radio, analogue television, typewriters (for filling out forms).
Paper books and magazines not only work well, they have not yet been matched by a better technology. When someone comes up with a technology that matches the contrast, resolution, portability, price, and durability of paper, only then could we expect it to displace paper.