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Doing some math...
A Kindle device with ads is $25 off the prince for the life of the device. If the user reads their Kindle once a day for a year, that's 365 ad views (assuming they pick up their Kindle to read and see the ad screensaver).
That's 7 cents for the cost of an ad view. ($25 / 365 ad-views) Most advertisers will pay about 7 cents for a pair of eyeballs - that's reasonable.
But we were talking about ads in ebooks, not in devices. A typical ebook takes the average reader a week to read and they don't re-read the book more than once per year, so we're talking 7 views total (1 view per day for a week, assuming an "open-the-book, see-an-ad" interface).
If we stick with the same 1 ad-view = 7 cents model, then the customer savings for buying the ad-supported version will be 49 cents.
Now, it's possible that there will be a small following of subscribers who will buy the $9.50 ebook (as opposed to the $10 ebook) because they WANT the ads. If the ads are as good as Amazon's ads ($20 Amazon bucks for $10 cash), then that could definitely happen. But MOST advertisers aren't doing that kind of "loss" brand building with their ads.
Anyway, I'm unclear because the convo keeps shifting between ads in ebooks and ads in devices. Both have a completely different set of issues, imho.
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