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Originally Posted by Andrew H.
But they're not outselling paper books. Not even close. They are 10% of the market in the US, and far less in the rest of the world - close to 1% in the non-UK part of Europe.
They are outselling paper books on *Amazon* - which, while the largest bookseller in the US, still only has 15% or so of the market. And which has its own, heavily promoted e-reader. E-books are likewise close to outselling paper books at Bn.com (but are not even close to outselling paper books if you include B&N's brick and mortar stores).
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Okay, fair enough. But doesn't the fact that the largest bookstore in the U.S. is selling more e-books than paper books, and that B&N is seeing something similar, count as a trend?
Obviously, B&N is never going to see e-books outsell paper books at the brick-and-mortar stores, but that's mainly because they don't sell e-books there. And from what I've been reading (e.g.,
this article), the brick and mortar stores aren't doing so well. It won't happen immediately, but dead tree books do look like they're starting a serious decline (at least, in the U.S.)
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Originally Posted by Andrew H.
Most people read 1-2 books per year. It makes no sense for these people to spend $100+ on an e-reader to read their books - the device would be obsolete before they read five books.
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This is true, but you're forgetting about tablets, which are a significant part of Amazon's and B&N's strategy. Most people probably wouldn't spend > $100 on a reader, but they'll spend > $200 on a device that has multiple functions. And the avid readers among us
will pay for the privilege of e-ink and a seamless experience.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrew H.
Most people still buy music on CD, despite a massive push into (and adoption of) mp3s.
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CD sales vs. MP3 sales is a little bit tricky to pull off. Making that kind of comparison doesn't account for all the people who buy MP3s piecemeal, without buying full albums. (At least, that's how the stats look to me.)
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Originally Posted by Andrew H.
Change doesn't happen overnight, and it only happens completely when the new format offers many improvements and almost no drawbacks over the format it has replaced. Vinyl records are *almost* dead, killed (almost) by CDs. Film is *almost* dead, due to digital.
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I don't think either one of those is actually going to be "dead" in a real sense of the word (like, say the telegraph), in our lifetime. People will still use film for artistic reasons (even though from what I understand, you can do most of the effects digitally now), and there will still be audiophiles and DJ's and such who swear by vinyl.
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Originally Posted by Andrew H.
CDs are not almost dead because they still offer some advantages over mp3s. For the majority of people who don't read 10 books per year or more, pbooks are still better.
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CDs aren't dead, but they're fading fast. Something like 36% of album sales are MP3s now. And from what I understand, that's only counting full albums. That doesn't even count one-off purchases of songs.