So much news sounds gloomy for Palm, such as the
most recent news we see posted about PalmOne's predicted troubles. In fact, it almost feels like mainstream "experts" on the mobile computing market can sell nothing but gloom and doom with a dab of hysteria! Everyone gives Palm a long shot at a smart phone niche market, but thinks all depends on that success. I say that's very short sighted. Why not a successful niche market in traditional PDAs, or something that the traditional PDA evolves into? I, for one, am not ready to count PalmOne out. And I don't think I'm alone because developers are not jumping ship as if they think it's sinking either. If anyone should be able to recognize a sinking ship it's them. But they see a future, and so do I. There's every reason to continue to think PalmOne will survive.
As much as people like to proclaim the PDA market dead and gone, it's not gone. It just may not keep growing like it had been. What about the toaster market? How much is that growing? They've even had to deal with the ubiquitous microwave that slowed down sales of the toaster oven. But did the toaster disappear? What about the market for analog watches? Everyone thought that was going to be gone forever when LED and then LCD display watches came out with all kinds of fancy features. But isn't there plenty of money to be made by lots of analog watch manufacturers? I wear one myself. And one of these days I'll replace it. Those markets may not expand exponentially, but there's enough there to be successful, and keep putting out good products.
If you think about it, it's not so much that it looks like Palm is going under (assuming PalmSource can provide a decent next-generation of it's PalmOS). It's mostly frustration because we think they are missing golden opportunities, and because they're just not giving us any decent PDAs on the market in this dry season.
The T5 was close. I even had one reserved at a PalmOne store when it came out. It would be an awesome PDA if done right. I think it was a great concept. But all you hear about is that it's a great PDA with some problems. Even some of the recent years have hurt Palm because of bad battery life or production quality problems combined with weak customer service. The T5 problems, Sony withdrawal, lack of product news, and all the worries about Cobalt caused me to join the Pocket PC crowd for now. But I would love to see Palm develop some devices that make it worth my while to go back to PalmOS.
I think there's still a lot of market to keep Palm going as long as they can keep the developers from jumping ship. I don't really believe that people are so happy with their current PDAs that they don't want to upgrade or replace. If nothing else, they'll want to buy a new one when the old battery won't hold a charge. A lot of the doom and gloom is just reaction to all the Clies not being sold. And without many new products that are delivering value and capability, I think a lot of people are just waiting.
Some people are happy enough with their PDA to wait on a purchase, but not to the point they will never purchase a PDA again. And there's a lot of hobbyists that are like me. We've jumped ship because we felt forced to make the leap, but really prefer deep down to be on the Palm side of things. I'm not a Microsoft hater, despite having my complaints. I actually appreciate a lot of what they've done for personal computing and PDAs. I want them to succeed. (Sorry folks... I know that's not a popular position on tech sites around the web.) But I just like the Palm approach because it feels good.
I believe PalmOne will get past this bump in the road and be able to find some core competencies that they can use to make great products. They may lose much of the smart phone market, but that doesn't mean they lose the core PIM market. The sales may be falling for PalmOS, but most of that is due to Clie gone and no sign of the basic products people can rely on.
Think about Palm fanatics... we prize the simplicity of the Zen of Palm, and want a product that works well with minimum fuss and a great UI. I don't see that with Treo or T5, but I am convinced PalmOne can get back there. And I if you don't think so, let me prescribe my favorite tonic for the depressed Palm fan... one or more daily readings of
Palm Addict. It will be sure to renew your hope!
PalmOne is working on production quality and supplier issues and I'm sure they'll get that right. If they don't, we'll see new leadership that will. PalmSource will eventually have a Cobalt OS that PalmOne will be willing to adopt. I admit that's a bit of a question mark right now, but they might already have reached that point... PalmOne takes so long to produce a product that something might be well on the way already.
So, bottom line, I think Palm will come back. Not like the spectacular hopes we had for it with domination of the portable device market, or a huge piece of the smartphone pie, but with solid basic PDAs. Devices with lots of capacity, and well-executed with the best UI in the market. Eventually, they will move into SmartPhones, but I don't see them dominating there unless they get lucky. The market is too tough, and they don't seem to be taking advantage of opportunities. I just hope they do all this before something else takes over the market. There are certainly enough threats... Windows or Linux-based handheld computers with PIM features. Smartphone alternatives which will become better and better at integrating large screens and more powerful computing capabilities. And even the possibility of a new Palm-like OS to ride on top of another OS (like Windows or Linux.)
Show us proud Palm, and don't let this critical time slip away completely. Some of that momentum is gone, but there's still time. We're gonna have to see something eventually that makes the Palm platform worthwhile. A reason to buy. You don't get a free pass just because you're the sentimental favorite. When desktop OS and hardware become available in a handheld computer at a great price and with good battery life, I'm afraid it's going to be too late.