While I anticipate that eBook sales will continue to rise, I agree that it's likely that total book sales will fall. First, many eBooks will be sold at very low prices (when I started in the business, my $3.99 price got me hate mail from other publishers. Now, a lot of self-publishers are testing the $0.99 point). Second, many books are in the public domain and can be read for nothing (which is cool but doesn't help revenue volumes). Third, we have ever-increasing demands on our time, and ever-increasing entertainment alternatives. Sure, I can read on my Color Nook, but now I can watch video on it, too. I certainly hope that this forecast is wrong (in fact, I'm in this business because I believe books provide a great value), but I don't think it should be dismissed out of hand. We on this forum mostly love books... not everyone in the world shares this feeling.
Rob Preece
www.BooksForABuck.com