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I belong to the Doubleday Book Club. Typically, 8 of the Times' Top 10 Fiction are available from the Club, and have been hyped for a few weeks before their release dates.
As a result, I see the Times list to be hype-driven rather than reflective of merit.
Worth noting, I think, is that many of the books nowadays are the umpteenth episode in a series. In mainstream jazz, by the time a musician got to be popular, typically his best recordings were behind him; and I suspect that this is also true for many popular fiction writers.
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