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Old 04-21-2011, 11:41 AM   #80
pdurrant
The Grand Mouse 高貴的老鼠
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DiapDealer View Post
Because it's not correct, by my logic anyway. The goat-door has left the equation--it's Casper... bologna without the mayo. What you are left with is 50-50 chance. Switching your choice at that point doesn't decrease or increase the odds.

You know what?

I think I just fell for the bait.
It depends on the assumptions you bring to the problem. If you assume that Monty knows what's behind each door, and that he therefore will always open a door with a goat behind it, you should switch.

But I agree that it's not really a trolling statement. But I'm also not going to spend any time critiquing the examples used in a usenet post by someone in 1994!
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