Maybe I have over-emphasized the importance of hardware at the expense of authors, publishers and content vendors but I still believe that cheap e-readers are crucial in widespread adoption of ebooks.
My personal opinion is that LCD simply is not an adequate technology for dedicated e-readers, e-ink is. I used to read Mobipocket books on Palm device for many years but then around 2007 I tried to buy a dedicated Ectaco e-reader with a reflective LCD screen for about $100. It was so bad that I returned it the same day. It made no sense to buy a dedicated e-reader when Palm and laptops and nowadays iPhones and iPads and other multifunctional tablets can do the same and much more.
The question is: can they make e-ink screens even cheaper than they are now? Maybe manufacturers have hit a wall but it is apparent that some industry players are betting on e-ink proliferation. E-ink readers should come in all sizes and options of additional functionality to fit everyone and it will be too difficult to fulfill by one vendor.
You are right about simplicity but it is achievable through well established open standards as well, not with proprietary platforms. The comparison with cell-phones is justified. You buy any cellphone you like out of hundreds of models available, insert your SIM card and start making calls. Transferring the contact list to the new phone is the greatest hurdle in this process. Why it should be different with books? You buy an e-reader, go online (through WiFi, 3G or via computer), enter your password for your bookstore(s) (Amazon, Kobo, etc.), deregister the old device if required and continue reading your books as before. Any other functions will be secondary and non-essential.
Kindle sells best because of lower price only. Pocketbooks and others are still too expensive for masses. They are not on the level of cheap cellphones yet. In either case I suspect that in Russia most ebooks read on these devices are non-DRM works, publicly available, i.e., from lib.ru , or otherwise. If e-ink prices fall, Kindle loses its edge.
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Don't expect cheap generic "standard" hardware to be with us much longer as anything but a niche product, if that much.
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I wouldn't be so sure. Cheap cellphone models don't make news and ad space but they can be bought everywhere. My wife just downgraded her 3-year-old broken semi-smartphone to a simpler Samsung model for $50 that has decent battery but can do only calls and SMS only. She just couldn't remember if she had used any extra functions during the last year so no need to spend money on it.
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The real winners will be those that build solid reading *platforms* and those may be global players or local players but what they won't be is hardware-only.
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The real winners will be readers who will have more options what to read and access to even greater selection of books that no physical bookstores and libraries can ever provide.
