The K1 was out for close to two years before the K2 was announced. I think the K2 was out for 18 months before the K3 was announced. I would be surprised to hear about a K4 this year. We will have a good idea that it is coming when a press event is annoucned at a big library of sorts.
I think that Amazon will wait until it has a touchscreen that it really likes that can be produced for the price of the 3G K3 or color e-ink before releasing the K4.
Now that I said that, there will be an accouncment of a K4 next month.
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