[Nathanael]

Originally Posted by Andrew H.

I'm not sure I agree with this. If there are enough readers to sustain a market for *books,* I think that there are enough people readers to sustain a market for dedicated e-readers.

I don't know. Certainly the ereading market isn't going to do anything but expand, probably like gangbusters. But that doesn't necessarily mean most of that's going to be happening on dedicated devices. With the iPad alone expected to outsell the entire dedicated ereader market by nearly three-fold this year (it blew way past the Kindle's annual sales figures in just its first two months out of the gate), I can't but believe that's having some impact on dedicated ereader sales.

I expect soon, if not already, we'll begin to see ereading growth outpace ereader growth. I'll not be at all surprised if, eventually, dedicated ereaders themselves become a niche market within the larger ereading phenomenon. Here at MR, for example, I think we're going to see a lot more members listing non-dedicated devices as primary or secondary devices (there's already a dedicated iDevice forum, and MR's just added an Android forum), maybe to the point where dedicated ereaders are eventually in the minority even on MR.

Originally Posted by Andrew H.

It's certainly the case that neither the iPad nor the advent of agency pricing seem to have had much of an effect on e-readers sales in the US.

While the question of agency pricing vis-a-vis ebook sales is an interesting discussion in its own right, I'm not sure it's relevant to the dedicated ereader market. As to the iPad's impact, it's been out less than a year, so I suspect it's too early to find any decent numbers on that. It may well have slowed market growth, but I don't think anyone knows yet.

Originally Posted by Andrew H.

A lot of people just don't want to read novels on LCD screens, and so far that's what it looks like tablets are bringing.

But then, a lot of people do. I offered my own wife as an anecdotal example in our other discussion, and I doubt she's alone. She won't buy an ereader, because she finds the e-ink display too hard to read; she wants the higher contrast backlighting offers, so she's biding her time for the iPad2.

In any case, LCD vs. e-ink is not necessarily the same discussion as dedicated device vs. tablet. As e-ink technology improves - as color e-ink finds its way into the market, and e-ink responsiveness and contrast improve - we may begin to see tablets with e-ink screens, who knows? Conversely, as ereader manufacturers begin to add features -- WiFi, web-surfing, music player, apps -- they begin to resemble more multi-function devices.

I'm certainly not predicting, and I don't know that dedicated ereaders are ever going away entirely, but I can't help but think they're headed for niche-market status.

--Nathanael