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Originally Posted by Nathanael
"Conflation"? Hmm, not really. I'm using a single definition. I said "conflate" because the two uses of "standard" in your post clearly implied two different definitions -- the first, Microsoft-style standards, the second ISO-style -- and then tried to equate them.
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You are, of course, the best guide as to what you intended to say. I'll just point out that, for many people, saying something is "the" standard is quite different from saying that something is "a" standard. That's how I read it, in any event. But enough about that.
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If we're talking "most books downloaded" Amazon may have the lead, but it doesn't come close to the sort of market domination Microsoft enjoys, nor is it likely to. By most credible estimates (i.e., not Amazon press releases), at the top of its game Amazon held perhaps 60% of the ebook market. And that was before B&N and Apple entered the fray. But, like Amazon, B&N reported selling "millions" of ebooks, and that it's now selling more e- than pbooks online. And, according to this estimate Apple went from zero to 10% of the ebook market in just two months. And neither B&N nor Apple sells azw. I'll be the first to credit Amazon for dragging ereading into the mainstream. However, I think the tide is rising faster than Amazon can control, and I just don't see Amazon's market share going anywhere but down, even while ebook sales skyrocket.
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Kindle has 70-80% of the US market.
http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-18438_7-20012381-82.html iBooks have become basically a non-entity as a format, as people use their iPads to read Kindle and Nook books. So it doesn't look like the tide is rising faster than Amazon can control; at least in the US, they still seem to be in charge.
However, even though Amazon is throwing up MS numbers, it's not clear that this would lead to MS style dominance. DRM notwithstanding, it's much easier to convert ebook formats from azw to epub than it was to convert MS programs to Mac programs. Or betamax to Sony, for that matter.
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Even in the US market, I just don't see azw as a clear winner. And of course if you want to step outside US borders, .azw can't be had for love or money. Here in China there are four standard e-formats which, near as I can tell, every ereader supports: TXT, PDF, HTML and EPUB. Even Kindles here in Shanghai do epub, but not azw (though, admittedly, they're gray market).
So, even if I were to grant that azw is the "standard" for now, I don't see it remaining so.
--Nathanael
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I'm not sure yet how much the international market matters yet, particularly given that the US seems to be 75% of the e-reader market (according to this
http://publishingperspectives.com/20...reader-market/)
The Kindle is designed to help Amazon sell books (so, too, the Nook and B&N), so I'm not sure to what extent they are actively seeking to compete in markets where they don't sell books in the first place. On the other hand, the fact that, say, France and Germany have such a tiny e-book market would have to look like an invitation...but these countries are also fixed book price companies where Amazon would not be able to compete on price.