[Kali Yuga]

Originally Posted by bill_mchale

When that 6 months includes Christmas (which often represent half the sales a retailer makes in the year), it can be significant.....

True. But if you genuinely believe that launching in September 2009 instead of May 2010 would have saved Borders, then you just aren't recognizing the realities of the situation.

4 straight years of losses. High interest corporate loans. Terrible real estate decisions, locking them into costly 15- and 20-year leases. Revolving management that took millions when they left. They were already closing stores in early 2010. They can't pay the publishers. Their biggest shareholders are about to be wiped out. The Wall Street Journal thinks they may owe $1 billion.

There is no way that getting the Borders-Kobo out 6 months earlier would have fixed this. That's bailing out a sinking boat with a teaspoon.

Originally Posted by bill mchale

All the early adopters had already gotten ebook readers....

So what? Let's face it, the iPad came out at the same time, with zero experience or brand identity with books, and zoomed right past Borders for ebook market share. By June they allegedly had 20% or so of market share.

And remember Sony? They were one of the first big entries in the ebook space; it used to be "zomg Sony and Amazon," and now they're on the bench.

And, of course, numerous portable digital audio players preceded the iPod; IBM and Apple dominated the early PC market; Real was a big presence in streaming video; Palm had one of the first Smartphones; Symbian has had a mobile OS, that is now getting spiked in favor of Windows Mobile 7....

Getting to market early doesn't matter.

Originally Posted by bill mchale

The Kindle didn't take off because Amazon sold it, the Kindle took off because Amazon made a good reader and then focused on it while the market was still very young. Borders could have been that company.

I'm sorry, but you're not talking about the actual Borders. You're talking about a hypothetical bookstore chain that wasn't losing money hand over fist, had enough cash and/or credit on hand to afford an early move in ebooks, had good management, and had the muscle to force publishers to get into digital.

That Borders does not exist, and hasn't existed for years. The real Borders was not going to be saved from years of losses -- and more losses to come -- by ebooks.

As to the the Kindle, it took off because Amazon was pushing it as hard as they could -- putting it on the front page for years on end and buying tons of ad time. They had the money to develop the market, the muscle to push the publishers, a culture that pushes technology, and a brand identity that fit. It was also a decent product, but that doesn't always matter much either....