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I personally think that Sony could beat out the Kindle (or both could win in a sense) depending on what Sony does. If both remain closed ecosystems (proprietary formats for DRM and DRM-free HTML-based eBooks), then it is possible that the Sony device would die out and be replaced by Amazon's better ecosystem. But if Sony moves quickly on ePub support, and ePub DRM is standardized, then we suddenly have a new ball game.
Even though the iPod ecosystem was the first to 'get it right', it wasn't completely closed. You could still bring in your MP3s and have it play on the iPod if you didn't care for the iTunes store. With eBooks, we have yet to see a true 'MP3' of eBooks beyond ePub, which is still gaining ground. If we do see an open format (in the sense that it is possible for anyone to make it with common tools) take hold on the leading devices, then it will be harder to snuff out Sony simply because Amazon's ecosystem is better...
I bought the Kindle as my first reader, and have now converted over to the PRS-505 and intend to sell the Kindle. The PRS-505 has better support for the content /I/ want, and with my growing ePub library, I can convert for both the Sony and Kindle. Once I stop having to convert, it will be even better. I have even been trying to make what purchased content I have into ePub to keep it into a format that I can still crack open and muck with or convert 2-3 years from now easily.
In the end, it is better for the consumer if we get a standard format that is open to consumers and publishers, and a series of devices from multiple vendors that support the standard format. It then allows us, the consumer, to decide which is the better device by merit, and let the niche guys get niche devices without losing out on the ecosystem (I can't see myself buying an iLiad, but I certainly don't want to see cool devices like it dying out just because people can't sit down and agree on a format).
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