MobileRead Forums - View Single Post - 4 reasons why e-book growth will be slower than expected

fjtorres · 02-03-2011, 06:13 PM

By the way, Amazon's recently reported unit sales ratios--1.15 ebooks per paperback, 3 ebooks per hardcover--works out to a 45/40/15 sales rate of ebooks/paperbacks/hardcovers.

It's pretty clear that Amazon is already where the music industry is in digital sales and *still* growing ebook share, so setting the bar at 50% unit share is pretty low, even granted that as the industry leader, Amazon is several years ahead of their competition. Because Amazon is clearly pointing out that, given abundant, reasonably-priced ebooks, readers are *not* so wedded to print that the 50% mark is out of reach. More, with the dual examples of Amazon's ebook success and Borders' deathspiral, most retailers will *have* to look to growing their ebook markets to survive. Essentially retailers have to follow Amazon, as B&N is doing, or risk following Borders.

All in all, given the current growth rate, I would expect to see the ratios stabilize at something like 60/30/10 unit sales in the near future. And that is with the price-fix scheme in place. If Agency pricing should vanish, publishers are going to be facing a *lot* of downwards pressure on pbook pricing. Which might explain why they're actively looking for signs of hope even from industries that don't map particularly well to theirs.

02-03-2011, 06:13 PM	#9
fjtorres Grand Sorcerer Posts: 11,732 Karma: 128354696 Join Date: May 2009 Location: 26 kly from Sgr A* Device: T100TA,PW2,PRS-T1,KT,FireHD 8.9,K2, PB360,BeBook One,Axim51v,TC1000	By the way, Amazon's recently reported unit sales ratios--1.15 ebooks per paperback, 3 ebooks per hardcover--works out to a 45/40/15 sales rate of ebooks/paperbacks/hardcovers. It's pretty clear that Amazon is already where the music industry is in digital sales and still growing ebook share, so setting the bar at 50% unit share is pretty low, even granted that as the industry leader, Amazon is several years ahead of their competition. Because Amazon is clearly pointing out that, given abundant, reasonably-priced ebooks, readers are not so wedded to print that the 50% mark is out of reach. More, with the dual examples of Amazon's ebook success and Borders' deathspiral, most retailers will have to look to growing their ebook markets to survive. Essentially retailers have to follow Amazon, as B&N is doing, or risk following Borders. All in all, given the current growth rate, I would expect to see the ratios stabilize at something like 60/30/10 unit sales in the near future. And that is with the price-fix scheme in place. If Agency pricing should vanish, publishers are going to be facing a lot of downwards pressure on pbook pricing. Which might explain why they're actively looking for signs of hope even from industries that don't map particularly well to theirs. Last edited by fjtorres; 02-03-2011 at 06:18 PM.