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I think counting the number of devices in use that are capable of reading ebooks is the wrong metric. Even here on MR some device owners are more interested in using their device to surf the Internet than to read ebooks and the fact that nearly every cell phone is capable of ebook reading doesn't mean that more than a trickle of them are so being used.
I think the metric of exceeding hardcover sales also is not a good metric. The reason is that (I think) to be a good metric, every ebook that is sold has to also be offered in ebook form and the pricing needs to be equivalent for both formats.
I think the true metric is the day ebooks capture 20% or more of the paperback market if the measure is only sales where a buyer has a choice between the paperback and the ebook version at an equivalent price.
Of course, the definition of mainstream could be simply that more than x number of people are willing to and do read an ebook, in which case, ebooks are already mainstream.
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