Quote:
Originally Posted by RockdaMan
First: What new functionalities would Apple not be able to offer?
That said, I'll make a quote of something I read earlier this month:
Why did I quote this? To press the point that Apple is an elite business. It doesn't matter what the competition does, Apple always finds a way to excel. There is nothing new in the Google/Android HP/WebOS RIM/Playbook race that is so dfferent that we can can say Apple will might be in bankruptcy a decade from now The PC companies had the best shot at doing it, and Apple outperformed them. It's much more likely that they'll be in the same position they are in now: reaching markets first, getting an irreplaceable grip on the most valuable parts of those markets, and leading the rest of the companies in profit and mindshare.
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Apple doesn't really "excel"
. They have always been behind the curve (cut&paste, multitasking, flash, RAM, processor speed, battery capacity, just to name a few). Only 2 things where they have actually taken the lead (built-in memory and the screen resolution on iPhone4) Look at the iPad. Ridiculously low memory of 256 MB. Ever heard of flash? Doesn't work well on mobile devices big Steve's tells you? Try any advanced Android phone from the last 2 years. I use my Streak to watch video from the internet all the time. Smooth sailing, Apple talking down flash is just marketing speak. Just a matter of the personal grudge that Jobs holds against Adobe. No exchangeable battery on a phone (which also necessitates the multitasking problems and the refusal to use flash)? No widgets (just to turn WiFi on and off you need to click 6 times!!). No customizability. Actual file management capabilities. The iphone has a tiny screen -- you could easily fit a 4" screen in the same form factor. Multitasking still not up to par. Actually the only thing Apple is the market leader at is in dumbing down devices so that even the technophobes can use them -- not always a bad thing, but it means I lose so many capabilities I want and need. And Apple has only one choice. Besides, others have followed that dumbing down trend (in Android with carrier custom ROM's and WM 7 is designed from the ground up for the clueless).
Now the iphone4 actually is a capable device unlocked, not as the masters of the universe intended, though. The only thing Apple is good at is marketing, paying all of those bloggers and tech journalists who give rave reviews to mediocre products. And Google is exactly the one who can beat them at that game.
Reliability? Jesus, the breakdown rate I have seen among people I know is incredible. The difference? The fanboys just don't complain, they get it repaired and just say "it looks good".
No, I don't predict Apple will go bankrupt. But they will go back from being the perceived market leader to being #3 or 4. Way behind the leaders. What do others offer that Apple doesn't in the tablet space? Different form factors, bigger for media, smaller for reading and portability. Full flash, no need to pay for Hulu, etc. Uncensored market. No need for iTunes or a computer at all, you can do everything right from the phone. Others are offering cheaper prices but more capabilities. Apple will not sell less, but the market will grow and most new buyers won't be buying Apple tablets. End result will be a greatly reduced market share for Apple.
Besides, Apple will be a victim of its own success. Given the fact that you see their devices everywhere these days a lot of people who used to buy Apple to stand out are buying something else that seems more "special". Others are learning better styling, too. Apple now tries to keep its products "family friendly" which further alienates many.
You say Apple is an "elite business". And you are right, but you forget that elite business cannot dominate anything but niche markets for long. And once an elite product becomes ubiquitous it loses a lot of its appeal.