Quote:
Originally Posted by queentess
As I understand it, at least 3 of those are the "superior" technology: BETA, HD-DVD and ePub. Not sure about the others. ePub isn't in danger of going anywhere though, so you're safe  |
Nope.
ePub isn't going anywhere soon.
Neither is mobi.
Still...
Beta had better lab specs but shorter playing time and, when it mattered, was Sony-exclusive while VHS was always multi-vendor, cheaper to buy into, and supported two hours of recording, enough for two TV episodes or one TV movie.
HD-DVD was cheaper to manufacture, players were also cheaper, and didn't need a staff of Java programmers to Code extras. Except for the cheaper players, none of the other advantages mattered to consumers or, worse, the studios. Plus Sony's Columbia and FOX were *never* going to support HD-DVD because of the mandatory Digital copy. In the end, Kingmaker Time Warner fliped a coin and the industry lost two years of development and revenues, hastening the arrival of online digital video.
ePub? It's nominal advantages, like HD-DVD's, don't seem to resonate with buyers in the recreational reading market that is the bulk of the ebook business today. "A difference that makes no difference is no difference."
Pundits may harp all they want on the specsheets but consumers seem to care about the content that shows up onscreen, about the convenience of getting said content, and the price. None of which are dependent on the plumbing in the file format. It's early in the game to compare either ePub or Mobi to Beta or even HD-DVD because its a different business and a different era.
If *I* had to bet, I'd bet the final answer will be "none of the above" but that answer is a long ways coming. As in next decade, most likely.
Nonetheless it is pretty much a myth that markets fail and "superior" techs lose; markets never fail. Pundits simply fail to read the markets properly. Two very different things. Markets are all about emergent effects and mass action and they therefore always choose what matters to the masses no what matters to pundits.
Candidates for the island of near-miss techs, however, are Blackberry, Symbian, iOS, Maemo, WebOS, Windows Phone, and even Android. (Did I miss any?) Pretty soon all the debates about gadget OSes are going to be as quaint as the debates about Commodore vs Atari in the days of the home computer wars.