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GA Russell · 01-02-2011, 10:01 PM

Let me first admit that I don't have proof for what I am about to say. These are all hunches.

I think that we can look to the music experience with piracy, but I believe that we are talking about different markets. The music people were kids who were computer savvy. The eBook people are adults, many less computer savvy.

I don't think that new eBook reader owners think about pirating their books. As sales of eBook readers continue to climb exponentially, I expect sales of DRM eBooks to climb exponentially as well.

In time, more and more new eBook consumers will notice that an eBook they want is not available for sale. One day, they might mention it at the summer family reunion or at Thanksgiving dinner, and a younger generation family member familiar with music downloading is going to mention that since music is pirated, books probably are too. He will then give the eBook consumer some tips about how one might try to find pirated eBooks if they are similar to pirated music.

So the eBook consumer goes home and tries it, and maybe he finds the book he was looking for. Perry Mason, here we come! Then maybe he will notice that the books he has been paying for are also available for free at the same pirate site.

I don't think that this scenario will unfold promptly upon one's getting an eBook reader for Christmas. But maybe by the second Thanksgiving after that.

As long as new consumers are added to the eBook fold, the publishers will sell plenty of James Patterson eBooks. But eventually the peak of the curve will be reached, and by that time the word about the piracy of eBooks will be out.

At that point, the publishers will be depending upon the goodwill of the consumers. The record companies do not enjoy the goodwill of their consumers. The RIAA are seen as bad guys.

I think that the publishers are now at a fork in the road, and that it is imperative that they maintain the goodwill of the reading public rather than maximize short term profits. If they don't, I see them losing a ton of sales a few years down the road.

01-02-2011, 10:01 PM	#146
GA Russell Ticats win 4th straight Posts: 7,695 Karma: 31487351 Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: Raleigh, NC Device: Paperwhite, Kindles 10 & 4 and jetBook Lite	Let me first admit that I don't have proof for what I am about to say. These are all hunches. I think that we can look to the music experience with piracy, but I believe that we are talking about different markets. The music people were kids who were computer savvy. The eBook people are adults, many less computer savvy. I don't think that new eBook reader owners think about pirating their books. As sales of eBook readers continue to climb exponentially, I expect sales of DRM eBooks to climb exponentially as well. In time, more and more new eBook consumers will notice that an eBook they want is not available for sale. One day, they might mention it at the summer family reunion or at Thanksgiving dinner, and a younger generation family member familiar with music downloading is going to mention that since music is pirated, books probably are too. He will then give the eBook consumer some tips about how one might try to find pirated eBooks if they are similar to pirated music. So the eBook consumer goes home and tries it, and maybe he finds the book he was looking for. Perry Mason, here we come! Then maybe he will notice that the books he has been paying for are also available for free at the same pirate site. I don't think that this scenario will unfold promptly upon one's getting an eBook reader for Christmas. But maybe by the second Thanksgiving after that. As long as new consumers are added to the eBook fold, the publishers will sell plenty of James Patterson eBooks. But eventually the peak of the curve will be reached, and by that time the word about the piracy of eBooks will be out. At that point, the publishers will be depending upon the goodwill of the consumers. The record companies do not enjoy the goodwill of their consumers. The RIAA are seen as bad guys. I think that the publishers are now at a fork in the road, and that it is imperative that they maintain the goodwill of the reading public rather than maximize short term profits. If they don't, I see them losing a ton of sales a few years down the road.