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What seems to be missing from the analysis, IMHO, are two things.
Ebooks don't solve obscurity. The fact that anybody can publish an ebook cheaply means that obscurity is going to INCREASE, not decrease. I mean, yeah, somebody can now find you on the internet -- but they can find 100,000 other indie authors as well. Thus the value of a publisher with the ability to market is going to increase, not decrease. Internet social network marketing is still just marketing. Professional marketing efforts are still going to be quite valuable.
The profits from new release hardbacks are something author's want too, not just publishers. I really doubt publishers are going to stand by and pay authors what they do and allow the authors to undercut their hard book prices with ebooks the publishers get nothing from. So for authors who wish to go with publishers for their paper books, I really doubt they'll have the option to go with self published ebooks.
So that leaves such authors choosing ebook only -- and I really doubt that is a recipe for success for the major authors.
Lee
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