Quote:
Originally Posted by Barcey
Well it depends. If they mean 50,000 by the end of this month I think that's really good.  If they mean 50,000 by this time next year I would think they're hoping for more then that. |
They mean 50,000 in the first 12 months. My own analysis is that this is an underestimate. I expect 100,000 in the first 12 months.
Analysts come to these conclusions mainly by talking to insiders who spill information to them, or they comb public but obscure sources. For example, it is possible to know almost exactly how many Sony's were sold in the first quarter after they launched, because the company who sold them the displays leaked out that sony bought 10,000 screens in the august before their launch. So that's the most they could have sold until the next order several months later.
My sources indicate Sony has sold between 20,000 and 50,000 of their readers since they launched. This is not enough for sony to continue the project long term. They had far higher volume than that in their online music venture and yet they shut that down this year.
Sony is likely benefitting from the enormous error made by Amazon in not having sufficient units on hand for christmas. That will keep them alive for one more year. But once Amazon gets their act together Sony has to be toast in this market. Amazon just has too muich marketing might.
A few months ago I would have said Sony is gone in 12 to 18 months, but the surge of sales they are no doubt seeing now will probably extend that to 18 to 24 months. They will wait to see if amazon builds a market for them. Amazon will indeed build a market, but not for Sony.
All bets are off if the USA falls into recession in 2008. In that case Sony could trim the project earlier as a cost cutting measure. There is approximately a 50% chance of recession in the USA in 2008.