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emellaich · 12-14-2010, 02:16 AM

I compare this with video stores. I know bookstores have been around much longer, but I think that video stores (in a more compressed lifecycle) show us what is in store for book stores.

Mom/pop video store ==> Blockbuster & Hollywood ==> Redbox, Netflix, iTunes, Amazon, Hulu

Fast forward ten years and I just don't think we will see bookstores except as specialty stores in the largest cities. For social purposes, we may continue to see strength in coffee shops (from Starbucks to McDonalds), but their media will be CNN and the Net, not books, nor newspapers.

So, the problem for both BN and Borders is that their strength is in physical locations and physical books. I predict we will see the same thing happening there as we have seen in video and with newspaper publishers. I don't really see them as strong competitors on the internet. Right now, their physical stores give them leverage for their web sites. As just a web site only they don't have the same critical mass as Amazon.

I visit Amazon for lots of reasons: Electronics, household goods, and books. Every time I visit I see the latest Kindle hardware, or the latest book releases. Amazon's overall web presence is just too dominate. If the other guys lose their ties to physical stores, I just don't think they will be able to keep up.

I do seem some possibilities. Amazon's natural competitor is Walmart (IMO). It seems to me that Walmart could purchase BN to better match against Amazon.

Another possibility is a partnership/merger with Sony. I'm not quite sure how this plays out since Sony's track record here is spotty. It does own record production. However, it closed down its online music service. Of course they do have their own online bookstore. I just can't figure out where they are headed long term.

Apple could be a possibility, but they have never shown an inclination to grow iTunes through acquisition.

I do wonder about some of the other electronics manufactures who may be eying the moves of the Sony reader, the iPad, and the Kindle. Samsung has its tablet, but doesn't have iTunes or a book store. What about Sharp? Panasonic? Might one of these need a media partner to work with their software.

Anyway, it seems to me the answer is a partnership like this. Not a BN/Borders merger. I'm not saying the BN/Borders won't happen. I'm just guessing it won't amount to much over the next ten years.

12-14-2010, 02:16 AM	#80
emellaich Wizard Posts: 1,101 Karma: 4388403 Join Date: Oct 2007 Device: Palm>Ebookman>IPaq>Axim>Cybook>Kndl2>IPAD>Kndl3SO>Voyager>Oasis	I compare this with video stores. I know bookstores have been around much longer, but I think that video stores (in a more compressed lifecycle) show us what is in store for book stores. Mom/pop video store ==> Blockbuster & Hollywood ==> Redbox, Netflix, iTunes, Amazon, Hulu Fast forward ten years and I just don't think we will see bookstores except as specialty stores in the largest cities. For social purposes, we may continue to see strength in coffee shops (from Starbucks to McDonalds), but their media will be CNN and the Net, not books, nor newspapers. So, the problem for both BN and Borders is that their strength is in physical locations and physical books. I predict we will see the same thing happening there as we have seen in video and with newspaper publishers. I don't really see them as strong competitors on the internet. Right now, their physical stores give them leverage for their web sites. As just a web site only they don't have the same critical mass as Amazon. I visit Amazon for lots of reasons: Electronics, household goods, and books. Every time I visit I see the latest Kindle hardware, or the latest book releases. Amazon's overall web presence is just too dominate. If the other guys lose their ties to physical stores, I just don't think they will be able to keep up. I do seem some possibilities. Amazon's natural competitor is Walmart (IMO). It seems to me that Walmart could purchase BN to better match against Amazon. Another possibility is a partnership/merger with Sony. I'm not quite sure how this plays out since Sony's track record here is spotty. It does own record production. However, it closed down its online music service. Of course they do have their own online bookstore. I just can't figure out where they are headed long term. Apple could be a possibility, but they have never shown an inclination to grow iTunes through acquisition. I do wonder about some of the other electronics manufactures who may be eying the moves of the Sony reader, the iPad, and the Kindle. Samsung has its tablet, but doesn't have iTunes or a book store. What about Sharp? Panasonic? Might one of these need a media partner to work with their software. Anyway, it seems to me the answer is a partnership like this. Not a BN/Borders merger. I'm not saying the BN/Borders won't happen. I'm just guessing it won't amount to much over the next ten years.