I've had my K3 in the amazon cover while walking on a treadmill, and I accidentally knocked it down. I used my foot to partially break the fall. There was no damage to the Kindle, but I think one of the hinges got bent out of place, and it is slightly more difficult to insert the Kindle into the cover because the hinges don't line up perfectly. Personally, I wouldn't trust the Amazon cover for walking on the treadmill. You are correct about your assumption that the hinges would be the weak link.
I agree with one of the above posters, that a treadmill book-holder is very helpful. Although, I must note that I had my kindle in the above-posted book holder when it fell, so it's not a perfect solution.
Currently, when reading on a treadmill, I use the kindle naked (without a case) on the plastic book-holder, with a rope tied around the top of the Kindle and all the way around the book-holder and treadmill display. With the rope, it would be very difficult for the kindle to fall over. Also, I am expecting a silicone case to arrive tomorrow, and I'm hoping that the silicone will be enough to help soften any falls. If you search amazon for "kindle silicone cover" you can see some good ones.
As a final note, the treadmill I use has the book-holder way too low, so when I was walking and reading I always had to have my head down, and it was very bad for my posture. I used a couple of thin pieces of scrap wood to make a higher ledge for the book holder, and now I can walk while keeping my head high. It helps a ton with the posture. The only reason why I'm posting this is because if anyone else is having problems with the book-holder being too low on their treadmill, I just want you to know that it is possible and easy to create a modification to fix that problem. But, I am using a treadmill at home, and it sounds like OP only uses the treadmill at a gym, so maybe such a solution wouldn't be so applicable there.
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