Quote:
Originally Posted by mr ploppy
It isn't really ebooks, it is the internet in general. People just don't think of looking in local shops for things any more (except food). They just can't compete with the internet for choice, availability and convenience. When the internet is often cheaper, it's obvious why local shops would close down.
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I think you are right on target when you lay the blame on the Internet. In years past, I used to dread the holiday season -- having to fight crowds in the local stores to do shopping. For the past several years, with minimal exception, nearly all of our holiday shopping has been done online -- and the driving force was ease of buying, not price. I'm in my sixties and didn't grow up with online shopping; if I adapted to it, imagine how quickly and completely those younger than me have done so.
As for books, I think that market will turn into a 3-tier market. The first tier will be ebooks. I suspect that eventually 75% of all books sold will be ebooks, once every ebook supplier conforms to a single format standard and a single DRM standard that ensures a long life for a purchased ebook and device neutrality. This is still years away.
A second tier will be print books. I expect this will be hardcover only and comprise 20% of the market. These will be sold via specialty stores, both brick-and-mortar and online, via the agency model. Publishers will wake up and realize that b&m stores really do serve a marketing purpose and force the agency model on all hardcover sales so as to level the playing field. These books will continue to be bought by collectors and by those who want a secondary market.
The third tier will be the used book market, the secondary market, which will cater to collectors and to those who want to buy books at a price lower than they would otherwise pay for a hardcover or an ebook.
I think that eventually the book will wholly replace the current paperback market. I think if publishers were forward thinking about their own tenure in the business, this is how they would be going.