[andrewburt]

Originally Posted by DMcCunney

Amazon wants market share, and uses price, selection, and convenience to get it. In the case of ebooks, they want to be your only supplier, and the ecosystem based around the Kindle and Kindle apps is tailored to making that happen.

Except that consumers aren't generally loyal in the face of higher prices. The wonderful thing about the free market is that someone else can play in the ebook space and yank market share from Amazon if they do it better. Look at browsers: First it was Mosaic and Netscape, the Microsoft took it over with Explorer, and now that's losing ground to Firefox, Safari, Chrome, etc. Anyone remember the search engine Alta Vista? It was the hot site of the day, then Google popped in with a better mouse trap, and now nobody uses Alta Vista. Bing is taking market share from Google now.

Amazon did have the first-to-market lock on ebooks, until B&N -- now the Nook is grabbing market share. Apple is trying. You can bet that Google ebooks will start to do likewise, especially if they get a better app for the android platform.

While the Kindle can only read MOBI format files (easily, unless you convert them with something like Calibre), many other readers can read Kindle, epubs, etc. I mean, an iPad can read any format, a netbook can, most smartphones can (I've been reading on my blackberry for many many years now), and so on.

Any other bookseller can sell .MOBI files too -- such as Smashwords (or anyone) and they load right into your Kindle right from the Kindle's web browser. (We have a Kindle WiFi. Click on .mobi, loads right in.)

Amazon can't lord it over anyone, except by offering good content at good prices.

If the Mobi format book isn't protected by DRM, you can side load and read it. If it is, and it's not from Amazon, you have to strip the DRM. Most folks don't know how to do that, and may not want to bother if they do know.

I suspect a lot of people who are heavy readers know about Calibre, though. DRM is a whole other topic, but (in my experience as, e.g., VP of the Science Fiction & Fantasy Writers of America) ultimately it costs you readers. Piracy isn't a problem worth worrying about so long as you have the legitimate product easily available at a fair price.

Kindle/Kindle app users have the selection they like at a price they are willing to pay, and don't see this as an imposition...now. What happens if Amazon does obtain a monopoly on ebook sales (or even a strong majority of the market? Want to bet they won't raise prices, because you don't have an alternative and they can, if they think they need to?

I don't think they can gain a monopoly on it. Waaaaay too easy to produce and sell ebooks.

If you don't think they would, tell me where to get some of what you're smoking. Amazon is a Fortune 500 company with a strong P/E ratio and a healthy stock price. Their overriding goal is to maintain that position, and they will do what they think they have to in service of that goal.

Bingo. They have to remain competitive.

Amazon is a retailer. The resell things others produce. Amazon set a default price of $9.99 for ebooks and conditioned a large number of folks to think that was what ebooks should be priced at.

Well, not so fast thar, pardna. They couldn't have pegged it at $99.99 and "conditioned" people that was good. Wouldn't work. They had to pick a price that the market would bear. To maximize profit, they might price it higher in exchange for selling fewer units (elasticity of demand), but that's what businesses do. And if some other business can do it better, they will.

They did not talk to the producers (the publishers) of the ebooks they sold about this move.

I'll give you that Amazon is aggressive. I've dealt with them at the corporate level, and yes, they are savvy and aggressive. I would like for them to have done a number of things differently, but in the end it really won't matter, because of competition. (Or potential for competition; Amazon can't slip up, or the alligators will eat them.)

On the other hand, as an author and former VP of a major author's group, I can say that the publishers generally never talked to us about their moves either.

I think Amazon realizes that if ebooks become the dominant format for books, publishers' days are numbered. Or if not numbered, what they do changes dramatically.

This relates to our discussion over on the other thread:
http://newnewforum.com/viewtopic.php...8&p=1287#p1287
so I won't repeat all that long thing here.

The publishers aren't bad guys. They are trying to survive. To survive they must make money, and what their costs are and how much they have to make to remain in business will determine the prices they charge. The big question now is can a major trade publisher produce ebooks at the low price people would like to see and stay in business? The answer may well be "No. They can't."

A fair number of folks here seem to feel "Screw 'em. Let them go out of business! I'll buy direct from the author, and we'll all be happy!"

Be careful what you wish for. You might get it. I don't think you'll be happy if you do.
_______
Dennis

And I'm sure supporters of blacksmiths around the turn of the century used to say, "Man, blacksmiths aren't bad guys, they're just trying to survive." But we switched to cars and don't need shoes for horses any more. This is predicated on whether ebooks will replace paper. If not, and paper remains dominant by consumer choice, then ebook prices are irrelevant. But a lot of signs are pointing to digital books replacing paper, so this is germaine.

Just curious, are you in the publishing business?

As for what happens to publishers, that's the subject of my reply to your other post, http://newnewforum.com/viewtopic.php...8&p=1287#p1287 so I'll just point to that (warning: long). Basically an analysis of what will happen to publishers in a mostly-ebook world, how they'll have to adapt (or be replaced) since they're losing their golden goose.

--Andrew Burt
My ebooks