Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrew H.
I'm pretty sure that won't happen. Trees don't grow to the sky, and there are still too many barriers to e-book adoption, most notably that you have to buy an expensive device, there is no standard e-book format, and e-books suffer many disadvantages as compared to paper books. Even today, CDs outsell mp3s by a 2-1 margin.
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It will be interesting to see. There are a lot of tablet computers selling now, and the reading experience on an iPad is amazing. As for inexpensive, I picked up an android-based Pandigital Novel ereader for $80 last month. That's about the price of three hardbacks. (A few minutes work and it was a fully functional android slate.) Many people read on devices they got for other purposes. (I've been reading on my blackberry for ages now.)
epub and mobi are settling out as pretty standard formats, though I wouldn't be surprised if there's only one dominant format in five years (perhaps neither of the above, who knows).
The disadvantages of digital over paper are getting less all the time. I still want a reader device with sheets of (digital) paper I can flip and riffle. While that might seem a distant dream, then I read about a
digital paper product that could be brought to market in "3-5 years." As an author, I like to be able to sign books. So I figured out a fairly simple wait to
sign ebooks. Some people have said they like having a shelf full of book covers to look at, but one could easily imagine a screen hung on the wall displaying those too, if that's what's important to you. The uniqueness properties of paper books are getting fewer, and they may not ultimately matter to people as much as the pros of digital books outweigh their cons.
As for CDs vs. MP3s, I think the more apt comparison is LP vs. CD/MP3. Also, CD vs. MP3 numbers are frought with precision issues as to what exactly is being measured. Another example would be VHS being overtaken by DVD sales (which took a mere three years).
It will sure be interesting to see. I'll be pretty surprised, actually, if paper book reading is very common by, say, 2025. (To be conservative.)
