Thread: Smashwords Moves to Agency Model
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Old 12-07-2010, 04:29 PM   #84
andrewburt
Science Fiction Writer
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrew H. View Post
In three years, the US e-book market has gone from way less than 1% of books sold to about 9% of books sold.
And 9% is just the beginning. If you want an idea where it could go -- and I stress this is just "could" -- I did some curve fitting of the AAP's ebook sales datapoints to the standard S-curve that many product adoption rates follow. The data fit the curve very tightly, and where it showed it going was, frankly, pretty astonishing. While I've been saying for ten years that digital books would replace paper somewhere in the 2015-2025 time frame, to see an S-curve showing it happening in the very near future kind of blows my mind.

The analysis, graphs, etc. are at: http://critique.org/blog/?l=20101110212040
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