In the Disney vs. daycare case, part of the argument was likely that the use of the Disney characters was commercial, i.e. to make the daycare more attractive to customers (parents and kids).
That being said, it's quite possible that Disney would go after someone who used an image of one of their characters-- including a photographed licensed model OR a hand-drawn original sketch-- as an avatar in a forum. The Mouse is a bit rabid that way. And in the US, they'd probably win in court.
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