[Kali Yuga]

Originally Posted by SensualPoet

ebook sales (books, not readers) will be 30% lower in 2011 than 2010. Yup ... the prediction is $665 million more sold of ebooks from Amazon et al this year but less than $400 million more in 2011. They predict $301 million in ebooks sales in 2009; $966 million in 2010 and just $1.349 million in 2011. Really?

I don't have the report, and it's unfair for me to question your reading comprehension skills. But that doesn't mesh with what I've been seeing about this report.

For example, McQuivey's blog post states:

Originally Posted by McQuivey

2010 will end with $966 million in eBooks sold to consumers. By 2015, the industry will have nearly tripled to almost $3 billion, a point at which the industry will be forever altered.

Sounds to me like he's predicting a major increase in ebook sales over the next 5 years. He goes on to point out that the early adopters are also the people who buy the most books; that the people who own dedicated devices buy 2/3 of books in digital form now; that sooner rather than later, paper will be just an "adjunct" to digital sales, etc. He certainly isn't predicting a huge upswing in paper sales.

Originally Posted by SensualPoet

Or this: most people read ebooks on laptops. Or this: half as many people read ebooks on an iPhone as on a Kindle. 80% as many people read ebooks on a Sony vs an iPhone. Or this: Nook and iPad are tied for eReading.

OK, so do you have any proof to the contrary? Or another set of studies which indicates the study itself is flawed?

And you are keeping in mind that the percentages are not exclusive and, at least what I've seen, aren't measuring time on the device? E.g. if I read one book on my laptop and 20 on my Nook, and you read one on your laptop and 20 on your iPad, and so forth, then you'll end up with laptops getting a high percentage in this particular study.

To put it another way: Kindle, Nook, Sony, iPad and iPhone owners pretty much all own laptops and, at some point or another, read on them. I.e. it's basically just pointing out that these groups have laptops in common.

I might add this is not the first time I've heard that most people have used a laptop to read ebooks.

Originally Posted by SensualPoet

Or this: Exactly 50% of people who bought an eBook in the past month (the report is dated Nov 5) have bought eBooks from Amazon’s Kindle store. Does that mean they shopped at Amazon last month? Or once, ever?

Since I don't have the report, I can't state precisely. But the interpretation I've seen, and hold, is that at this moment half of ebook buyers are using the Kindle store at least once, though not necessarily for all purchases.

Originally Posted by SensualPoet

In the July report by this same analyst, the conclusion was the only way eReader folks like Amazon, Sony and B&N could survive was to strip out all connectivity and features in "a race to the bottom".

H'm, sounds familiar. No, wait, MR readers were predicting the iPad would decimate all the competition, and they'd have to give away ebook readers in cereal boxes in order for that form factor to survive.

Going off of his July blog post, it sounds more like he specifically expects the tablets to be so much better for reading in a few years (better screens, lower power consumption), and so ubiquitous, that there will be barely any qualitative differences between a dedicated (eInk) reader and a tablet.

While I'm not sure I fully agree with him, a few months ago that was definitely the MR groupthink. Oh, except MR'ers were expecting it to happen immediately rather than in 2 years.

And unlike them, he was expecting Amazon not only to survive but flourish in the new era, whilst MR'ers where imagining the total destruction of Amazon at the hands of Apple.

Are you sure this guy has no concept of what he's talking about?

Originally Posted by SensualPoet

Four months later he writes: Starting next year, however, more people will come into the market for whom reading an occasional book on a tablet PC will suffice. Dedicated reading devices, no matter how cheap, will not be of interest to them if they can’t also do a few other things like check email or access apps.

Actually, that sounds about right.

Heavy readers, who make up a disproportionate amount of book revenues, will benefit from a dedicated device. As tablets become a more routine part of the landscape (presuming that's the case), people who have one and only buy a few books a year will be satisfied with those devices.

Or, think of it this way. If you live in New York City, you only need to drive a car a handful of times a year; otherwise you can do fine with public transportation and taxis. So why would a city dweller go out and buy a car, even if it's fairly affordable?


I've read lots of analysis and pundits who are way off base. However, McQuivey seems a lot more on the ball than most, and strikes me as more consistent than you suggest. Again, I only have access to the summaries, not the report itself; as such I am reluctant to say it, but maybe you're just not getting the gist of his positions.