MobileRead Forums - View Single Post

SensualPoet · 11-08-2010, 08:17 PM

I can't speak for the fellow who wrote the summary at the link ... but the person who wrote the analyst report that's quoted (ie the analyst) makes some astounding (and unlikely, in my opinion) statements.

Try this: ebook sales (books, not readers) will be 30% lower in 2011 than 2010. Yup ... the prediction is $665 million more sold of ebooks from Amazon et al this year but less than $400 million more in 2011. They predict $301 million in ebooks sales in 2009; $966 million in 2010 and just $1.349 million in 2011. Really?

Or this: most people read ebooks on laptops. Or this: half as many people read ebooks on an iPhone as on a Kindle. 80% as many people read ebooks on a Sony vs an iPhone. Or this: Nook and iPad are tied for eReading.

Or this: Exactly 50% of people who bought an eBook in the past month (the report is dated Nov 5) have bought eBooks from Amazon’s Kindle store. Does that mean they shopped at Amazon last month? Or once, ever?

In the July report by this same analyst, the conclusion was the only way eReader folks like Amazon, Sony and B&N could survive was to strip out all connectivity and features in "a race to the bottom". Four months later he writes: Starting next year, however, more people will come into the market for whom reading an occasional book on a tablet PC will suffice. Dedicated reading devices, no matter how cheap, will not be of interest to them if they can’t also do a few other things like check email or access apps.

Laugh or cry? The analyst consistently has no idea of what ebooks are, what ereader owners expect, or where the industry is going. 2009 saw 3% of publisher revenue from ebooks; this year closing in on 10%. In 2011, perhaps 20% or more. Amazon stated it may surpass unit sales of pbooks with unit sales of (paid) ebooks in 2011.

Hands up anyone who thinks there will be an expansion of paperback distribution in 2011 with more stores opening and new chains popping up? Or perhaps ebooks are actually the way of the future and therefore consumers will demand more and more elegant ereader devices fine-tuned to better, um, reading experience?

11-08-2010, 08:17 PM	#3
SensualPoet Wizard Posts: 2,302 Karma: 2607151 Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Toronto Device: Kobo Aura HD, Kindle Paperwhite, Asus ZenPad 3, Kobo Glo	I can't speak for the fellow who wrote the summary at the link ... but the person who wrote the analyst report that's quoted (ie the analyst) makes some astounding (and unlikely, in my opinion) statements. Try this: ebook sales (books, not readers) will be 30% lower in 2011 than 2010. Yup ... the prediction is $665 million more sold of ebooks from Amazon et al this year but less than $400 million more in 2011. They predict $301 million in ebooks sales in 2009; $966 million in 2010 and just $1.349 million in 2011. Really? Or this: most people read ebooks on laptops. Or this: half as many people read ebooks on an iPhone as on a Kindle. 80% as many people read ebooks on a Sony vs an iPhone. Or this: Nook and iPad are tied for eReading. Or this: Exactly 50% of people who bought an eBook in the past month (the report is dated Nov 5)* have bought eBooks from Amazon’s Kindle store.* Does that mean they shopped at Amazon last month? Or once, ever? In the July report by this same analyst, the conclusion was the only way eReader folks like Amazon, Sony and B&N could survive was to strip out all connectivity and features in "a race to the bottom". Four months later he writes: Starting next year, however, more people will come into the market for whom reading an occasional book on a tablet PC will suffice. Dedicated reading devices, no matter how cheap, will not be of interest to them if they can’t also do a few other things like check email or access apps. Laugh or cry? The analyst consistently has no idea of what ebooks are, what ereader owners expect, or where the industry is going. 2009 saw 3% of publisher revenue from ebooks; this year closing in on 10%. In 2011, perhaps 20% or more. Amazon stated it may surpass unit sales of pbooks with unit sales of (paid) ebooks in 2011. Hands up anyone who thinks there will be an expansion of paperback distribution in 2011 with more stores opening and new chains popping up? Or perhaps ebooks are actually the way of the future and therefore consumers will demand more and more elegant ereader devices fine-tuned to better, um, reading experience?