Quote:
Originally Posted by paaThaka
Changes coming:
- even stricter DRM (in the beginning), but it will fail (same reasons as before)
- worldwide publishing rights, because Internet cannot be geo-contained (not even in China)
- much smaller publishers at lower prices
- ebook only publishers
- lots of piracy and blurring of the line between right/wrong
- perhaps even a "Napster" for ebooks/magazines/comics (dedicate torrents and sites have already exists for years)
- commoditization of publishing (the entry price/difficulty to being a published book author will crash through the floor, just like being a musician happened for music)
- a youtube of books, magazines, etc (scribd.com or some future variant I can't even dream up yet)
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There's another
possibility, based on the past performance of software sellers like Microsoft and Adobe: Both companies experienced years of piracy of their products; but they publicly turned a blind eye to it, while privately working on better DRM systems; and once they had an established market share, they rolled out the new DRM systems. The bulk of their customers grumbled, but most of them also stayed with the software they'd been using, thereby confirming that the MS/Adobe strategy worked.
Today, try to get a pirated copy of Windows, Office, Photoshop, InDesign, etc, and get full use out of it... you probably could, but the effort expended by most would be more than the equivalent act of just paying for the software. Many choose third-party SW to replace these, but they still hold significant market share, and hold it by refusing to allow third party SW to interact properly with theirs... forcing those who wish to work with the market to use the same SW as the market, whether they like it or not.
Based on that, there is a possibility of the following changes:
- Big Booksellers develop a customer-based DRM (as opposed to a device-based DRM), tied to individuals and device-agnostic
- Big Sellers convince HW makers to include HW/SW that supports their DRM (or will notify them/disable content if you disable or circumvent it), making it effectively universal
- Sellers will convince content producers it is in their best interest to offer their content only in their DRM system (or may offer significant incentives for them to do so/disincentives to avoid doing so)
- Sellers won't sell content to people who don't have DRM-supporting devices
- Customers, wanting the latest and popular books and magazines, and not being able to buy HW that allows them to successfully circumvent the DRM systems, will finally (grudgingly) accept them.
- As DRM system becomes fully universal and ubiquitous, customers will get used to the DRM systems, and after awhile, few of them will care what things were like without it.
For the record, I'm not saying this is the absolute best way for this to happen. But based on past commercial history, and the proven business strategies of MS and Adobe (and others), I think it's
possible that the industries involved will eventually try this as the most effective way to establish workable DRM and safeguard their products, and that if they do, the bulk of consumers will eventually accept it.
The first of this DRM code will be loaded, bit by bit, into our present computers and devices through those ubiquitous updates we usually find we cannot avoid forever. The cynical, paranoid me wouldn't be surprised if it turned out it was already happening...
How will piracy fare under such a system? How strong is the pirate market for Photoshop, Office, etc? And there may still, in this scenario, be non-DRM'd products... but if the incentives for DRM'd products are significantly better for content producers, the DRM is shown to be effective, and fewer customers complain about it, how long will it be before all content producers simply knuckle under and go with it?
Obviously, there is a lot of speculation and a lot of "if"s involved in this scenario. But I believe it could happen just as I've described it, and piracy of ebooks could be rendered as not worth the trouble...