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Until e-books are a fraction of the price of pbooks, and until there is more choice than simply the popular holiday-throwaway novel (just look at the dumbed-down range and type of book on sale at Amazon) there is little reason to expect the figure to be much more than 6-10%. The view of so many e-reader owners that all we should need is the text of the book to enjoy it is one reason why there is still so far to go.
Dual page readers, colour, and the option of multimedia and web-related content facilities (should people want this) are only the bare minimum of what a new generation of readers wiull need to make the transition. Finally, to charge more than, say £5 for ANY ebook, which is basically 3mb of text with none of the tactile or aesthetic benefits of the real thing, not to mention the limitations of e-books in terms of sharing, lending, quickly referencing, etc etc etc etc.......we'll not be seeing a growth above 10% for the forseeable future.
Any growth we do have will be purely down to the number of devices that can now display ebooks - combine the eraders, ipads, pc's etc. After the novelty, it will be back to the dedicated 5-6% who find eraders genuinely fine for their purposes.
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