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Old 09-24-2010, 03:15 PM   #11
bill_mchale
Wizard
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fbone View Post
Someone will find a way for them to coexist. I'm confident of it.

According to this Harris Poll, only 20% of the respondents have or plan to purchase an ebook reader (this includes iPad). That leaves 80% of the 18+ crowd not interested in ebooks or 180 million adults.

http://www.bnet.com/blog/technology-...+on+the+Web%29

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-relea...103514154.html
Of course, the same data suggests that 2 in 5 readers (or about 40%) actually do much in the way of reading (11 books a year, which is not even a book a month).

So, I can certainly that the %60 of people who don't read all that much would see little need for an ebook reader. If you only read a few books a year, or no books a year (Which I suspect is probably higher than polls like this will indicate since I suspect that many will either over estimate how many books they read or simply lie to avoid looking like they are illiterate.), you have no reason to get an ebook reader.

So ultimately, we are looking at that remaining 40% of regular readers. So, if we assume (for good reasons) that the %20 who either have or plan to get ebook readers are part of that %40, we are looking at essentially a split down the middle of regular readers. About half of them get ebook readers and half don't.

The way I see it, we are probably looking at a minimum of a 30-40% shift of book sales from paper to ebooks. Further, I suspect as publishers and authors come to appreciate the higher margins of ebooks (since there is no storage, transportation or return costs associated with them) that more and more books will be made available only as ebooks or print on demand books. This might tip many of the remaining 20% of dedicated readers over to ebooks.

One way or the other though, I can imagine a 30-40% of their business playing havoc with a lot of dedicated book retailers.

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Bill
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