[DMcCunney]

Originally Posted by Baumi

Exactly. And my guess is those contracts will become the norm over the long run

Well, we can hope. I'm not placing bets either way at the moment.

The question is: Will you be able to negotiate terms like the current ones a few years from now? My guess is: no, since both readers and publishers will profit from a world without geo-restrictions. Authors won't necessarily, of course, but they are probably going to have to adapt if they want to get published.

Can you negotiate that kind of deal now?

Most can't. It requires your manuscript to get enough interest that multiple publishers want it and will bid against each other. Only a fraction of a percent of manuscripts reach that happy state.

But if yours can, you'll be reluctant to forgo the option.

It might seem better to have one publisher with worldwide rights giving access to a broader market and greater potential sales, with the possibilities of more royalties. But in practice, it doesn't work that way. An author licenses rights to publish a book to a publisher for an advance against royalties, and additional royalties paid after the books has "earned out" (covered its costs and the advance, and generated additional revenue from which royalties might be taken.) Most books don't earn out, and the advance is the only payment the author sees. Agents generally try to negotiate an advance high enough that the book doesn't earn out, since they get a cut of the take.

In that situation, multiple publishers offering independent advances for rights in their area may total more than a single publisher for all areas, and since the advance is all the author will ever see, the possible broader market by having one publisher is less significant.

Granted, for most authors, the single publisher model probably will be the most effective. I can simply think of cases where it won't.

(You'd have my sympathies there, btw: I write mainly for German TV, and both writer's rates as well as contract terms have gotten much worse over the recent years.)

Same here, I think. Certainly, we're seeing more pressure in publishing on advances, and some of the media tie-in works done on a work-for-hire basis have gone "single flat fee, no royalties". Everyone is trying to cut costs, and one cost they look to cut is the cost of content creation.

I know some folks who write for US TV. Assuming they can get the gig in the first place, the money is good, but there's fearful competition for the jobs. The bigger pressure in US TV is on production costs, as the growth of cable TV has splintered the market into a number of smaller niches, with less viewers for each. Lower ratings means less that can be charged for advertising, and pressure on costs. We see a fair number of shows supposedly set in places like New York City actually filmed in Toronto because it's significantly cheaper to do it there.

Is that really a problem? My guess would be: Via a translator paid by the respective publisher. (Who'll probably deduct it from the author's royalties... )

No, the translation cost will be a line item in the book budget. But the cost will affect how the book is priced and how much they'll offer the writer for the right to do a translation.

Not for existing content, of course. But the current model is so ill-suited for digital publication that I'm convinced it won't hold up much longer for new releases when (or if?) eBooks become an important market factor. The industry is going to fight change for a few years, since it always seems to do that, but at some point big name publishers will simply start demanding worldwide rights to make their life easier. And if they offer attractive terms, authors are going to go for it, eventually.

I largely agree, where the books are electronic. It will be much thornier for paper editions, and that will extend to ebooks. Consider the case where the original publisher isn't one of the big boys. The certainly have the ability to produce and offer both print and electronic editions. Where they will lag will be the ability to market world-wide. They may wind up having to partner with one of the big houses, if they happen to have a title that proves to have world wide appeal.

Just my personal guess, of course. Feel free to ridicule me a few years from now, if the current territorial model should actually manage to successfully survive a market dominated by eBooks.

It will survive for paper editions, and they aren't going away any time soon. eBooks are anyone's guess. It's certainly possible to restrict electronic distribution based on where the customer is. Whether is will be seen as desirable will depend upon who you talk to and whether they see themselves benefiting by doing so.
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Dennis