Quote:
Originally Posted by Icarusbop
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We also need to consider the possibility that global warming is happening, but not caused my man (non-anthropogenic global warming)..
so, what do you all reckon?
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This text is intended primarily for people over e.g. 18 year old. Younger people should just enjoy your youth and not worry too much about global warming or not. Wait till you are grown up.
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Global warming or not?
I am confident that IPCC has done their best to assess global warming (or not). According to the latest IPCC report:
Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report ("Full report"):
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_...sis_report.htm
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-re...yr/ar4_syr.pdf
Quote: "...
An Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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[pdf-page 5, paper page 27]
Where uncertainty is assessed more quantitatively using expert judgement of the correctness of underlying data, models or analyses, then the following scale of confidence levels is used to express the assessed chance of a finding being correct: very high confidence at least 9 out of 10; high confidence about 8 out of 10; medium confidence about 5 out of 10; low confidence about 2 out of 10; and very low confidence less than 1 out of 10.
Where uncertainty in specific outcomes is assessed using expert judgment and statistical analysis of a body of evidence (e.g. observations or model results), then the following likelihood ranges are used to express the assessed probability of occurrence: virtually certain >99%; extremely likely >95%; very likely >90%; likely >66%; more likely than not > 50%; about as likely as not 33% to 66%; unlikely <33%; very unlikely <10%; extremely unlikely <5%; exceptionally unlikely <1%.
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[pdf-page 15, paper page 37]
There is very high confidence that the global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] W/m2 (Figure 2.4). {WGI 2.3, 6.5, 2.9, SPM}
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[pdf-page 17, paper page 39]
It is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent (except Antarctica) (Figure 2.5). {WGI 3.2, 9.4, SPM}
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[pdf-page 18, paper page 40]
Anthropogenic warming over the last three decades has likely had a discernible influence at the global scale on observed changes in many physical and biological systems. {WGII 1.4}
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[pdf-page 50, paper page 72]
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level. {WGI 3.9, SPM}
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Anthropogenic warming over the last three decades has likely had a discernible influence at the global scale on observed changes in many physical and biological systems. {WGII 1.4, SPM}
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I am pretty confident that earths civillizations will take action, when the right tools are at hand.
Today we have powerfull tools to communicate (internet and (mobile) phones!) earthwide within seconds. We have accomplished enormous positive innovations with worldwide impact - even within the last 2-3 decades.
Once one or more energy storage conversion processes - directly or indirectly - from solar energy to e.g. hydrocarbon has been found and proved useable in global scale, I believe we are done. The total conversion efficiency just has to be a little more than biologically photosynthesis (approx. 6.6%).
Of cause we shall try to minimize energy consumption, but that is not enough - but it will buy some more time.
We ought to tax fossil fuel and coal, and use that tax to study ways to use and store solar energy - and maybe fusion energy. We need to be able to store e.g. solar energy for at least half a year - optionally e.g. 10 years.
Please note that wind energy and wave energy are "just" converted solar energy. A sort of "problem" is that fossil fuel and coal are pretty cheap. But once we have found one or more suitable technologies to replace most of the burning of fossil fuel and coal, that technology will be used almost everywhere.
Hydrocarbons (oil, petrol, many synthetic fuels..) are very good energy carriers. When we can make them ourselves efficiently in e.g. deserts or other plant scarce places - e.g. roofs - they will replace burning of fossil fuel and coal.
Solar cells/photovoltaics are getting cheaper and cheaper and can feed an intelligently controlled electrical power grids, and a synthetic fuel power plant can convert the surplus energy to synthetic fuel. The problem here is that the use of the electrical power grid needs to be changed, but the reward is a more stable and self-healing grid.
If we can efficiently extract CO2 out of the atmosphere - for synthetic fuel, the CO2 concentrations might be lowered more quickly than by biologically photosynthesis alone.
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Some sources:
upei.ca: Photosynthesis:
http://web.archive.org/web/200712162..._synthesis.htm
Quote: "...The overall efficiency is then .286x.43x.8x.67 = .066 or 6.6%..."
Could be less when plants are evaluated over a year:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photosynthesis#Efficiency
American Chemical Society (2008, April 11). Expert Foresees 10 More Years Of Research & Development To Make Solar Energy Competitive. ScienceDaily. Retrieved April 24, 2008:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0407172717.htm
Quote: "... "Solar can potentially provide all the electricity and fuel we need to power the planet," Harry Gray, Ph.D...In his talk at the ACS Presidential Symposium, Gray cited the vast potential of solar energy, noting that more energy from sunlight strikes the Earth in one hour than all of the energy consumed on the planet in one year..."
The area of the black dots' solar power is enough to power the whole world (18TeraWatt) - assuming 8% conversion efficiency:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi..._land_area.png
Description:
http://da.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fil:Solar_land_area.png
This paper has, among others, an efficient way of extracting CO2 out of the atmosphere:
Green Freedom (tm) A Concept for Producing Carbon-Neutral Synthetic Fuels and Chemicals (Patent Pending). F. Jeffrey Martin, William L. Kubic, Los Alamos National Laboratory, LA-UR-07-7897:
http://www.lanl.gov/news/newsbulleti...m_Overview.pdf
Quote: "...Making gasoline from air and water sounds exotic, but now practical technology has been developed to implement known chemical pathways for producing fuel from these abundant raw materials...With Green Freedom(tm), this possibility has progressed beyond speculation to a realistic, low-risk concept because it is based on novel process integration and modest extensions of existing technology..."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer-Tropsch_process
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_photosynthesis
July 31, 2008, Solar-Power Breakthrough.
Researchers have found a cheap and easy way to store the energy made by solar power.
http://www.technologyreview.com/Energy/21155/
(Actually it is a first step towards synthetic fuel - output is hydrogen)
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December 7, 2007, sandia.gov: Sandia’s Sunshine to Petrol project seeks fuels from thin air:
http://www.sandia.gov/LabNews/ln12-0...ws12-07-07.pdf
14-February-2006, Fuelcellworks: Sandia Labs Researcher Rich Diver Invents New Way to Make Hydrogen for Fuel:
http://web.archive.org/web/200804161...ppage4553.html
Quote: "...His invention, the Counter Rotating Ring Receiver Reactor Recuperator (CR5, for short), splits water into hydrogen and oxygen, using a simple, two-step thermochemical process...the theme of his PhD dissertation at the University of Minnesota — and of concentrated solar gained from his 15 years working with Stirling engine solar collector systems at Sandia..."
December 5, 2007, Sandia National Laboratories - Sandia’s Sunshine to Petrol project seeks fuel from thin air:
https://share.sandia.gov/news/resour.../sunshine.html
Quote: "...CR5 inventor Rich Diver says the original idea for the device was to break down water into hydrogen and oxygen...Over the past year they have shown proof of concept and are completing a prototype device that will use concentrated solar energy to reenergize carbon dioxide or water, the products of combustion. This will form carbon monoxide, hydrogen, and oxygen, which ultimately could be used to synthesize liquid fuels in an integrated S2P system..."