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Look at "tipping points" where did CD's start outselling Vinyl, and how fast did that happen compared to how fast people "thought" it would happen.
Same for DVD vs VCR, etc, etc.
If its going to happen, the commercial side will switch before most of the public is ready for it. And yes I do think its going to happen quickly. The avalanche is headed down the hill, it just hasn't hit the bottom of the valley yet.
2012 might be a touch early, for sure 2015 the trend will be set and markets will be adjusting. On the other hand I don't see Hardcovers ever going away completely, there will always be a market. But I suspect you'll see them looking more and more like coffee table books. Rich in Illustrations and Art they'll be laying around as a status symbol.
Mass market Paperbacks on the other hand could easily be on the way out in 3 - 5 years.
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