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Personally, I think HD-DVD would have lost the format war anyway, payoff or no payoff. Even when the competition started, and before HD-DVD/Blu-ray players came on the market, I had expected Sony to win out.
Firstly, Sony owns studios like Columbia under its Sony Pictures umbrella. They are also part owners of MGM. That already means that a fair number of movies/TV shows would use Blu-ray and not HD-DVD.
Second, there is the simple fact that Sony decided to include Blu-ray in the PS3. Even if the console ended up only being a third as successful as its predecessor, that would still mean that there were at least 40 million customers with a Blu-ray player at home, giving the format a significant advantage. Blu-ray was, simply, a safer bet.
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