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Originally Posted by Nathanael
1) The Kindle rode to its current level of success in a relative competitive vacuum. When it was released in 2007, there just was no serious alternative. The landscape has changed dramatically since then. The Nook is outselling the Kindle, the iPad has sold more units in three months than the Kindle hopes to sell in a year, and many analysts are predicting a sea-change when Google Editions debuts. And at least one analyst (Credit Suisse) has already predicted Amazon's share of the ebook market will eventually fall to 35%, with Apple and Google splitting the lion's share of the rest (and that was before B&N entered the ring).
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Amazon dropping to 35% share is very unlikely at the moment. As for Nook outselling Kindle, I very much doubt it. Amazon does not reveal their numbers for the Kindle so journalists can only make guesses. The number of iPads sold is hardly a negative thing for Amazon.
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Originally Posted by Nathanael
2) The Kindle depends heavily on the Amazon ecosphere. Separated from that, it's really a rather mediocre reading machine.
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I don't see a problem here. You get Amazons software on a plethora of devices including phones and tablets.
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Originally Posted by Nathanael
3) The international market, which collectively dwarfs the US, and lies outside the Amazon ecosystem. Kindle is late to the party in the EU, and so far is a complete no-show here in China, where ePub and PDF dominate. And remember, Amazon can't even hope to sell the Kindle before it has its ecosphere in place. But even in a best-case scenario (assuming Amazon manages it at all), that will take several years -- an eternity in techno-years. Amazon is to be credited with lighting a fire under the ebook market. But I think that explosive growth is now outpacing even Amazon's ability to control.
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Amazon is already shipping to most of Europe with a working system in place. With there new Kindle coming I don't see anyone threatening there position. Amazon looks very solid from a European perspective.