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For many, many years I was a shareware author. The number of downloads I got was entirely irrelevant; the only thing that mattered was the number of people who bought the product after downloading it. There are many people who will download something for the simple reason that it's free. Doesn't matter whether or not it's any good.
If you want to know whether or not you're any good as a writer, sell your books and then you'll see whether or not people place any value on them.
I'm afraid the number of downloads of a free book really is a completely meaningless figure.
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