Quote:
Originally Posted by mikij
There will always be those who like any of the two forms of reading and maybe even those who will continue to buy both forms (not of the same book).
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Are you sure *both* forms will be available to buy? Forever?
That it will always make economic sense to print books for mass market sale?
That the future will be exactly like the past or the present?
Negroponte's comment is about market dominance, not reader preference.
Just because people may *want* to read print books doesn't mean there will be new ones printed, or sold, or sold at affordable prices. Mr Strnad is most likely right; print books will most likely endure as only limited edition collectibles.
Yes, vynil is back. Sorta.
Although it never really went away; it always endured as a niche product for the golden ears crowd. Nonetheless, vynil is more popular now than it has been in decades. Only thing is, the average price of a vynil album these days runs north of US$20, whereas in the pre-CD days they ran US$5. The only way new vynils are viable is at a 4X traditional price. (Or double the CD price; take your pick.) Not the best example for the future of print books as a mass market product.
It is one thing to talk about people's preferences and another to talk about economic forces. If the volume of print book sales declines to the point a new release has to sell for $50 to justify even a POD edition those preferences are going to change pretty quickly.
As an ivory tower theoretician Negroponte tends to overvalue technology and underestimate economic effects but this time I suspect he's closer to being right than is his wont.
It may not take five years for print books to be marginalized but I still think it'll happen sooner than most people realize.
Or would prefer.
The way the wind is blowing, the economics are going to have the final word.