As I see it the big change that is now occurring is that while previously Publishers held the keys to distributing writer's works to a paying public, now there is a new entity able to deliver paying customers .. the eBook retailer.
What has not changed is that it is mainly successful authors that have these choices because they have established readerships. Clearly they now have a serious new option of bypassing the Publisher and selling direct via the eBook retailer (like amazon).
For lesser authors (i.e. the vast majority) the situation must remain quite muddied. Are Agents going to edit and shape an author's work to prepare it for sale via eBook retailers? What is the risk of destroying a relationship with a Publisher by bypassing them and selling to eBook retailers ? Is it worth destroying that relationship if the Publisher then stops pushing hard copies ? Clearly this is a high risk strategy until there will be a tipping point somewhere in or around 5 or 10 years time.
As this process unfolds and we approach this tipping point, then there are two major issues that need to be restructured. If Agents are to take on this new role of bypassing Publishers they will need to offer new services that used to be offered by Publishers (e.g. editing) and they will need to find a way to get their author's works promoted.
It's not a huge stretch to imagine an Agent offering these additional services but clearly their fee will have to increase. The question of who will pay for the marketing of the author's title is a bit more uncertain. I cannot see any Agent getting involved in this kind of speculative expenditure, can you ? So who is left ? Only the eBook retailer.
So we are now left with the question of how is the eBook retailer to fund the marketing ? when it carries thousands of titles ? Keep in mind that within a year or two it will inevitably be illegal for titles to be only available through exclusive deals with eBook retailers ? (for example there is no way the EU will ever allow this to continue).
It's not so easy to find a solution to this dilemma. But two things are clear. Firstly the eBook retailers can only give sporadic promotion to a small group of it's titles. Secondly they will inevitably require a higher margin to cover this marketing. This is a good time to remember that we have now increased the margin taken by the Agent for additional services previously delivered by the Publisher and we have also to increase the margin taken by the eBook retailer to pay for the marketing previously done by the Publisher ...
Lastly who is going to fund media tours by book writers promoting their new book ? tours of tv and radio stations ? what will replace in-shop promotion days ? who will pay for newspaper adverts for new titles by moderately new writers ?
We may be eager to cheer the removal of Publishers from the scene because of their appallingly slow reaction to the new market and their inept strategies for pricing and DRM control - but as entities that promote author's titles across all media I find it difficult to see how they can be replaced by anything other than a new entity doing the same job by another name.
In conclusion it seems to me that the best solution for writers is not the removal of Publishers from the scene at all. The best solution is a reborn Publisher with a tech savvy strategy, who offers all the traditional services of a Publisher including marketing, but who is far leaner, more efficient and responsive to the new eMarket and the transition that will be happening over the next 20 years. Like so many other industries going through this kind of restructuring, this offers huge opportunities for small or medium sized Publishing houses to bring in new management blood, cut out the rotten timber, dive into the new world order with energy and gusto and knock the old farts of the Publishing business on their arses.
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