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Sure, installed base is important.
But most people keep their smartphones for two years or less so what happens in 1/8th of that time can have a huge impact on the near future. Windows, Palm, Symbian (Linux? really? on a smartphone?) are on death's door ... Symbian having the best chance with its Ovi App Store of a graceful landing. Android will surpass Apple in installed base in 2010 or early 2011 and pass RIM shortly thereafter.
Android has come out of nowhere in the past 18 months (less?) and will be the dominate smartphone OS for the foreseeable future.
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